As our bare-ground winter has persisted in Pagosa Springs, several snow-loving people have asked me when was the last time we had a “winter” like this one. The lack of snow has become the talk of the town especially as many Winterfest activities are canceled. Apparently, no one remembers this picture from my 1st blog post on 1/1/18.
To be fair, hardly anyone read my 1st blog post. Not even AI!
Recently, I read an article titled, “Elon Musk says AI has already gobbled up all human-produced data to train itself….” The article explained that AI has already read everything on the internet. So I decided to test the author’s claim by asking AI, “When was the last time Pagosa Springs, Colorado was snow-free in January?” AI instantly replied, “...exact dates with zero snow cover on the ground in January are not readily available and would require detailed historical weather analysis”. I’m relieved to know that AI hasn’t replaced me yet! So below you'll find the detailed historical weather analysis many of you have requested!
Honestly, AI’s excuse is valid. Detailed, long-term snow data is scarce for the low-elevation regions surrounding Pagosa Springs. As a substitute, I will use historical data from the Upper San Juan Snotel site (located at 10,200 feet on Wolf Creek Pass) to infer the snow conditions at lower elevations. First-of-the-month snow data (January through June) has been collected at the site since 1936. Daily snow data collection began in 1979.
Although bare ground is common in December, we can usually count on a white Christmas and a big New Year’s storm. The 1991-2020 median line (blue line below) shows a jump in snowpack during this window of time, which usually blankets the ground with snow at least through January.
However, “winters” with less snow than 2025 have occurred five times since 1979. In fact, last year’s winter snowpack started similarly at the low elevations (above yellow line). However, last year I was able to skate ski the West Fork Nordic Trail with my family on January 1st. Sadly, the only places to Nordic ski this year are Fall Creek and Wolf Creek Ski Area, both of which require longer commutes to the high-elevation, lung-busting terrain. Last year, the bare ground came to an end with a big storm on January 6th.
Surprisingly, 2019 (red line) had a similar start to 2025, but an endless stream of snow storms made up for lost time in February and March causing the 2019 winter to finish with an above-average snowpack. At one point we had 53 inches in our yard!
Unfortunately for snow lovers, years like 2019 are the exception. December storms, particularly Christmas through New Year's, usually contribute around 20% of our annual snowpack. If our snowpack is below average on January 1st, we will usually end below average. The winters of 1990, 1996, 2000, 2006, and 2018 all began with less snow than we currently have. As for these top five procrastinators, snow finally started piling up in February and March, but sadly all five finished well below average.
The worst year on record and the type of winter (and summer) we should all fear occurred in 2002, which surprisingly started better than 2025 and the five procrastinators (red line below). If you think the snow is bad this year, you would have regretted buying a season pass at Wolf Creek in 2002. There was virtually no new snow from December 15 through early March.
And there weren't many summer boating, tubing, or fishing opportunities on the San Juan River because the river peaked at 296 cfs on April 15th (instead of 2500 cfs at the end of May). Without our normal pulse of melting snow, the rafting and tubing seasons did not exist in 2002. Sadly, the San Juan River through town hovered around 10cfs July through September. And, our region’s first large wildfire also occurred in 2002 when Missionary Ridge burned 73,000 acres and 46 homes between Durango and Vallecito Reservoir.
Now that I've informed you about past winters, here's what the historical data predicts for the rest of the snow season. Based on our snowpack on January 1st, the trendline predicts around 23 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the Upper San Juan site by April 1st. As you can see, there has been a huge range of outcomes for the years that had similar starts to 2025 (area in red below).
Although I'm getting concerned, hopefully, a weather pattern shift will deliver much-needed snow. History shows that this winter could make up for lost time in February and March. In the meantime, we can all hope for a dramatic comeback year like 1980, and pray that we don't have another year like 2002! I hope you can enjoy our meager snowpack on Wolf Creek Pass! The snow has been worse!
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